I'm emailing the first actual EI question to the list in months, instead
of ads for hair growth, etc.
My question concerns the exchange in Political Analysis in 2003. The
final article, co-authored by everyone, does not address the
cross-contamination issue.
Gary, what's your position on this? In my analysis I'm studying black and
white turnout, and in my second stage regressions, using Lewis' (2000)
FGLS, white and black turnout almost always go up or down together. What
do you think the likelihood is that cross-contamination could be occuring?
Are there any diagnostics? H&S2 make it sound like it's pretty much a
given to occur, although it seems most of the EI work I've seen published
doesn't support this view (such as Gay 2001, where white and black turnout
tended to move independently and not together).
Thanks!
Greg
Gregory A. Pettis
Political Science
Elon University
CB # 2203
Elon, N.C. 27244
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At 08:52 AM 9/25/2003 -0400, Gary King wrote:
>You should never pay much attention to the alpha in the extended model,
>unless you believe the model holds exactly. The best use of the extended
>model, as the basic model, is to go all the way to the precinct-level
>estimates...
I understand the argument for burdening the estimation stage with lots of
hypothesized covariates (although I don't like it!). I also understand the
problem with using the alphas as statistical summaries. They just move
around the bivariate normal from which the precinct estimates are drawn;
they do not reflect the actual relationship between covariates and
estimated behavior that emerges after the bounds constrain precinct
estimation. But I'm not clear on what you are prescribing when you say
people should go to the precinct estimates if they want to report the
relationship between various explanatory variables and the (estimated)
group behavior. I thought that's what I was doing with the second-stage
regression. Can you provide any guidance?
>(Was it Huey Long who accused a campaign opponent of being a "known
>matriculator"?)
Apparently it was George Smathers, a senator from Florida. He is quoted as
having said the following about Claude Pepper (see
http://www.lincolninstitute.org/archives/kennedy/0303.html)
- was a shameless extrovert
- practiced celibacy before his marriage
- had a sister who was a thespian in wicked New York
- matriculated before entering college
- was a well-known heterosexual in college
steve voss
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1603 Patterson Office Tower Phone- (859)257-4313
Dept. of Political Science "It was my duty to bring
University of Kentucky the facts to light, and there
Lexington, KY 40506-0027 I must leave it." Sherlock Holmes
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