Hi,
I have a large binary time-series cross-sectional dataset with multiple imputation
(through Amelia) for which I obtain the mean predicted probability and its C.I. through
Clarify for a set of hypothetical values for the independent variables. However, if I
calculate the (point) predicted probability using the estimated coefficients (obtained
through the "mi" function in Clarify) and the specified hypothetical values, I
get the opposite result. That is, in the Clarify case the mean Pr(Y=1) is 0.0064 while in
my calculation it is 0.999. And I have double-checked my calculation many times. How can I
explain this difference? Shouldn't the two results be somewhat similar?
Thank you.
Patrick Leblond
Assistant Professor
HEC Montreal
Department of International Business
3000 Cote-Ste-Catherine Road
Montreal, QC H3T 2A7
Canada
Tel: +1 514 340 5670
Fax: +1 514 340 6987
E-mail: patrick.leblond(a)hec.ca
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