Clarify March 2015

clarify@lists.gking.harvard.edu

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Problems saving changes in predicted probabilities with CLARIFY

by Barbet Porta, Berta

Dear all, My name is Berta Barbet and I am a PhD Student at the University of Leicester, United Kingdom. I am trying to analyse whether or not the impact of different issues at explaining voters decision changes through time in several countries. In order to do so I am performing several MNL regressions with issue positions as IV and vote as DV. And now I would like to plot the results into graph to make the visualisation of the importance of the different issues more clear. I was using the prchange command for the SPost package. But this package does not offer confidence intervals for the predicted values, so I decided to use the CLARIFY package. However, I have not managed to find a way to save these results with this package and I have not been able to find anyone who can help me. So far I have manage to calculate the changes in predicted values using: estsimp mlogit vote Welfare Defense Constitutionalism Decentralization European_Integration Morality Freedom Multiculturalism Labour Market Green if year==1992 setx mean simqi, fd(prval(1 2 3 5)) changex(Defense min max) genpr(defense92_1 defense92_2 defense92_3 defense92_5) Although I would prefer to calculate the change in predicted values by moving one SD above and below the mean, instead of min-max, in general the results that show in the screen are enough. However, I cannot save them. esttab commands do not work with the package. And the package only seems to save monte carlo simulations for the predicted values not for anything different. I have thought about the possibility of calculating the predicted probabilities at the different points and then just compute the difference and their variances. The problem is that unless I find a way to estimate the predicted probability at the highest and lowest value together, something that I have not been able to do (I only know who to do it by asking it to estimate them separated), the values of the Monte Carlo simulations saved come from different simulations. Hence, I should not substract them because they are not comparable. I have a lot of results, so saving them manually would imply a lot of work and risks making mistakes. Thank you very much for your help and patience. Kind regards, Berta Barbet Porta

9 years, 1 month

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Clarify March 2015