The best way is usually to study the tomography plots. That will give you
the sense of what information you data actually contain.
---
Gary King
617-500-7570
On Dec 14, 2013 12:27 PM, "Woo Chang KANG" <wck228(a)nyu.edu> wrote:
Hello,
I am using EI to estimate crossover voting in the Top 2 Primary in
California in 2012. The unit of analysis is at the precinct level and I
match the turnout record of partisan voters with election return data. For
simulation, I use the following formula.
formula <- cbind(dem.return, rep.return, oth.return) ~ cbind(dem.show,
rep.show, oth.show)
dem.return : Vote Share of a Democratic Candidates at the precinct level
rep.return : Vote Share of a Republican Candidates
oth.return : Vote Share of a Non-Two Party Candidate
dem.show : Ratio of Democratic Registered Voters among who casted ballot
for the primary
rep.show : Ratio of Republic Registered Voters among who casted ballot
for the primary
oth.show : Ratio of Non-two Party Voters among who casted ballot for the
primary
My quantity of interests are the ratio of democratic registered voters who
voted for the republican candidates (Democratic Crossover to Republican
Party) and the ratio of republican registered voters who voted for the
democratic candidates (Republican Crossover to Democratic Party).
Using precinct level data, I am trying to estimate population weighted
average of crossover voting at the State Assembly District. In some
districts, the estimate looks reasonable. However, in other districts, my
estimates suggest that more than half of each partisan voters crossover to
other parties. I wonder what would be the best way to examine how
reasonable my EI estimates are.
Thank you for your help.
Best,
Woo Chang KANG
--
Woo Chang KANG
Ph.D. Candidate
Department of Politics
New York University
19 West 4th St. 2nd Fl.,
New York, NY 10012.
-
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